Daily Fantasy Sports, or "DFS" have exploded in
popularity in recent years. It was
absolutely huge in football last season and I anticipate even more growth in
2015. For football but also for baseball. In fact, since there are about ten times as
many baseball games as football games the aggregate revenue for the companies
in this space should be much higher for our national pastime.
So, I'm intrigued by how strategy changes for these games as
well as trends in the market and the legality of it all. I'll dive into strategy here in a moment, but
I want all of you Brainiacs to be aware of what is out there and what you can
participate in.
If you look up DFS at Wikipedia
the first sub-section is about legality.
The US government passed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Act in 2006 but
DFS is exempted from the law. In fact,
all fantasy sports have been determined to be games of skill and not games of
chance.
I cannot speak for other nations or other parts of the
world, so please understand your local laws and how they are enforced. (What
you do is up to you alone.) In fact,
even though the US government has said that fantasy sports are legal there are
several states that have greater levels of restriction like Arizona, Iowa, Louisiana,
Montana, and Vermont. It's a crazy world
out there, so be careful. If you happen
to be in a part of the world that has laws allowing for sites like the sports betting page at William
hill more power to ya. But
please make sure you manage your bankroll responsibly and stay on top of your
finances... This is just for fun, folks.
I've heard some terrible stories of people playing DFS games way too
much and losing way too much money. And,
with baseball season upon us and 15 games being played almost every day for six
months... Well, it can get out of control.
If you suspect you might need help, I found an official-looking
website with a number you can call: 1-800-522-4700. (It looks official but I don't have any special
knowledge about it... Bottom line: Keep it under control and get help if you
need it.)
I got love for you Brainiacs... Fools be crazy.
On to the strategy!
1. Bankroll
Management - Your 'bankroll' is the amount of money you've decided to
spend on this hobby. Yes, I said 'decided.' That's the first thing: identify ahead of
time an amount of money that you can afford to lose if you lose it all, and
don't go over it. Deposits on the site
of your choice make this easy. When it's
gone, it's gone. You can play daily
games for 25 cents, so your bankroll could be a very small amount like $5 and
away you go. The websites will tempt you
with deposit bonuses, but it their minimum is above what you decided don't go
for it. Control thyself.
One basic thought on bankroll, and gambling in general: It feels great to win $10, but if you spend
$15 in order to 'win' $10 all you really did is lose $5. It can be like playing slot machines in that
way... Your brain gets those happy
chemicals associated with winning while you are really losing on the aggregate. (By the way, people, seriously... those slot
machines are programmed to pay out something like 97% of what's put in... They always make money off of you over
time. Always! Always, always, always. Always.)
2. Don't Play it
Safe - By all means be safe with your bankroll, but not with your
roster. I like to anchor my team with a
stud or two which spends me up to the limit but I like to take chances when
filling out the roster. The rationale is
simple: If you field a reasonable roster you will finish in the 'mushy middle'
and you won't win much (or anything).
Now, taking chances is highly risky so you are likely to lose... but if
you hit, you win. No one else will have
your risky lineup, so if you pick some great matchups you'll rocket to the top.
3. Study the
Matchups - Which leads me to the next bit... Study the matchups. This is important in football but critical in
baseball. And not just hitter vs.
starter but look at the texture of the bullpen and which arms have been used
recently. For example, I may not mind
starting a good lefty hitter against a decent lefty starter if their best in
the league LOOGY has pitched on back-to-back nights coming in. They can't bring in the assassin to get my
guy in the 8th inning which means he might be able to get an AB against a
mediocre righty late in the game. That
AB has value but it is hidden since it is unknown. The hitter's value is largely based on the
matchup with the starter and if it is a lefty-lefty matchup the hitter's value
will be depressed.
4. Park Factor
- Okay, I think about park factor entirely too much. Guilty.
But the real value here is understanding the parks that seem to favor
pitchers or hitters overall but have one factor that goes against the
grain. Fenway is known as a hitter's
park allowing 7.2% more runs than the average, but that is not due to more home
runs. There are actually 28% fewer home
runs there. Meanwhile there are 52.3%
more doubles due to the Green Monster, and those doubles tend to clear the
bases which increases the number of runs.
So, when picking a matchup in Boston don't go for a big right handed
masher hoping for a homer. Just one
example.
5. Stacking
- The concept of stacking is big in football since you want to have a shot at
big points. If you pick the right
matchup and Cecil Shorts catches three TD's from Blake Bortles, you'll win the
week if you stacked both of those guys on your roster. It's high risk, high reward... which is what
you are looking for. You'll lose a lot,
but when you hit you win. There's not
very much "mushy middle" here.
In baseball it's harder to do, but if you like Gregory Polanco against a
mediocre righty maybe you stack in Pedro Alvarez and hope for the left-handed
rout of the right-handed pitcher. You
may also stack a starter in a good matchup with his team's closer.
Alright, that's all I've got for now folks. I'd love to hear from you about your
successes in DFS... Keep an eye on the big picture over the long haul and be
careful out there, Brainiacs.
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