Okay, I'll admit that I was a bit of a Billy Joel fan when I was younger. It's hard to remember a time when that wasn't uncool, but he definitely had his moments... and the results speak for themselves. Anyway, he's got a song called "Movin' Out" where he says that this guy Anthony is 'saving his pennies for someday.' I want you to be Anthony in your auction draft.
There is a common belief that you should be willing to go an extra buck or two if there is a guy on the auction block that you are really in love with. On the surface that seems logical... You've done your homework and identified the guys you are targeting and if that $12 guy costs you $14, no big deal. If the $36 dollar guy costs $37, even less of a big deal. You'll get some $1 and $2 sleepers later, right?
My answer to that: a resounding 'maybe.' Maybe that works out, but I promise you there is a better way.
The better way goes like this... Instead of identifying your one $12 guy and your one $36 guy (and so on) that you have to have, group several options into buckets and save your pennies. You can outline your perfect draft as much as you want, but it will never go according to plan.
Let's say you have a 23-man roster and a $260 budget, which is pretty common. You know that some number of guys at the end of the bench will be those $1 and $2 sleeper types. Let's say in this scenario it's 7 cheep guys to round out your roster which means you are spending almost all of your money on 16 guys.
Okay, now the magic... If you save just $1 on each of those 16 guys, that turns one of your cheap bench guys into a $17 or $18 player. That is an immediate differentiator for you. It's like getting a free 4th or 5th round pick in a serpentine draft. If you do your homework, use my methods, and prepare appropriately you can make this a reality every time.
There's more to this theory that I will have in my audio series, but I wanted to get the gears of your brain meshing on this one. It is a good technique if used properly. If used incorrectly, you just end up with a bunch of money at the end of your draft with no one worthwhile to spend it on.
That's why it requires preparation and discipline. You'll have to spend your future savings pretty early in the draft to get a quality player that is worth the money.
Easy-to-use fantasy sports strategy. That's what we are all about here at the Brain. Join fantasy sports veteran and former ESPN Producer Dave McKay as we reveal new ways to think about the game. @TalktotheBrain
Bonus thought for you on this... Don't think of the average value of your players as the total dollars divided by the number of players drafted. Take out a few bucks for the bench guys and do the division on what's left. In other words, most people look at a $260, 23-man roster as being an average of about $11 per player. You should take out, say, $10 for your last 6 guys... Which means you are dividing $250 by 17 for an average of almost $15. That is an easy mind-change for you that can help with how you prepare for an auction.
ReplyDelete